Could the Year of the Dragon bring us some good luck in what otherwise looks a challenging year?
1. The Global Economy & Central Banks
According to Chinese tradition, the Year of the Dragon is associated with good luck, strength and health, something that the global economy might just need in 2024. From the outset it looks like a challenging year, the global economy continues to limp along with remarkable resilience despite unprecedented
monetary tightening by central banks. Central banks start to cut interest rates.
2. Global Conflict: From Ukraine to Gaza and Sudan..
While the two battlefronts, Ukraine and Gaza, may look very different, they actually have a lot in common. They reflect a titanic geopolitical struggle between two opposing networks of nations and nonstate actors over whose values and interests will dominate our post-post-Cold War world — following the relatively stable Pax Americana/globalization era that was ushered in by the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet bloc, America’s chief Cold War rival, wrote Thomas L. Friedman in New York Times. None of the outcomes of these wars are particularly welcome for the United States — or for most of the people in those countries, given which groups and authoritarians ended up in power — but they do show that seemingly intractable conflicts can end even as new ones emerge. It’s clearly not realistic to think that war will simply disappear. But as grim as the global headlines have been in recent weeks, it’s also misguided to assume that a return to the global carnage of the past is simply inevitable.
3. Inflation resistance
Inflation is proving resilient, sticky. Inflation will be down towards more comfortable levels – the big shock is over. Deglobalisation, climate change, ageing populations, war – all are more inflationary.This
looks as though it may continue through 2024 even if the big inflationary shock has passed. Getting inflation back down to 2% – the target set by most central banks
4. US Elections
The 2024 presidential campaign started with 15 candidates – nine Republicans, four Democrats and two independents – although some of them have already dropped out of the race. The two main parties nominate a presidential candidate by holding a series of state primaries and caucuses. There are differences between the parties and the process varies from one state to another.
The 2024 election will be on Tuesday, 5 November 2024. The winner will serve a term of four years in the White House starting in January 2025.
5. UK Elections
The next United Kingdom general election is expected to be held in the second half of 2024, and must be held no later than 28 January 2025. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said he expects to call a general election “in the second half” of 2024. An early election before the end of the five-year term could only be held under certain circumstances – such as if two-thirds of MPs agreed.
