fintechview met Frank Walbaum, Trader & Market Analyst FX Strategies.Asia to discuss his views on the markets and the recent tensions. Based on his market analysis, Frank Walbaum has noted that rising geopolitical tensions, including the US & Israel attacks in Iran, have contributed to positive momentum for oil prices and, at times, supported stock market levels. Frank has published his view on how the recent attacks and geopolitical tensions are driving investors towards safe-heaven assets like gold, and the volatility in the markets.
Gold could open the week with renewed strength as geopolitical tensions escalate following the recent U.S. and Israel attacks. Rising uncertainty typically drives investors toward safe-haven assets, and gold remains one of the primary beneficiaries during periods of global instability. Beyond geopolitics, currency dynamics are playing a key role. The U.S. dollar has shown signs of weakness again, and declining confidence in the U.S. fiscal outlook and rising debt levels are weighing on sentiment. A softer dollar makes gold more attractive globally, increasing demand from both institutional and retail investors. Expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy are also supportive. Markets are increasingly pricing in potential rate cuts or at least a more accommodative stance, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. At the same time, central banks, particularly in emerging markets continue to accumulate gold as part of long-term reserve diversification strategies. From a technical perspective, gold holding above the USD 5,000 level signals strong bullish momentum. As long as this zone remains intact, the trend points toward further upside. However, the dollar remains the key variable. Continued dollar weakness could accelerate gold’s rise, while any sharp rebound in the currency may temporarily slow the rally.
Tell us about your background, how did you move from TV into finance?
I started in television at Germany’s largest broadcaster, learning storytelling, production and research. In 2007 I relocated to Asia, which broadened my perspective. After leaving TV I joined a German family office where I transitioned into finance, ultimately managing a €450M FX fund. The skills from media, discipline, clear communication, and rapid analysis have indeed helped me adapt to trading and portfolio management.
What prompted you to focus on FX trading?
Living in Asia exposed me to vibrant regional economies and distinct monetary policies. I found currency markets intellectually stimulating: they’re driven by macro, geopolitics and sentiment, and offer liquidity and opportunity across time zones. My proximity to Asian markets made FX a natural fit. I have a particular affinity for the Japanese Yen, Singapore Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. I consider myself now a successful currency trader making my living entirely from the markets by trading my FX portfolio.
Apart from trading I also host educational webinars and seminars about the currency market. I have also worked as Market analyst for renowned forex brokerage firms, providing technical and fundamental analysis to their clients.
What are common mistakes retail traders make in FX?
Over‑leveraging, poor risk management, trading without a plan, and letting emotions dictate exits. Many confuse frequency with skill, taking too many low‑probability trades instead of waiting for high‑conviction setups. Ignoring macro context and correlations often leads to unexpected losses.
What’s your outlook for Asian currencies in the near term?
Broadly, Asian FX will be driven by global monetary divergence, China’s growth trajectory, and commodity/term‑of‑trade shifts. Yen volatility will hinge on BoJ policy normalization and risk sentiment; SGD will follow trade and domestic policy tone; NZD will track global risk and commodity prices. Active monitoring and scenario planning are essential.
US & Israel attack in Iran: What’s your view? How will the Oil & Gold market react?
The strike raises geopolitical risk premia as markets head into Monday’s open. The immediate reaction function is fairly predictable: safe-haven assets such as gold are likely to see an upside gap, while Oil prices are likely to remain elevated as production and passage remain prone to attacks and disruptions. OPEC may be under pressure to raise production to try and offset.
Who is who
Frank has been working in the TV business for several years. Acquiring his skills in Germany’s biggest broadcasting station, he then chose to work and live in Asia, which was in 2007. After quitting his job he started to work in a family office, where he was managing a 450 Million EUR FOREX fund for a wealthy German family. Being passionate about the countries and their people in Asia, he loves trading Asian currencies like the Japanese Yen and the Singapore and New Zealand Dollar. He is now a successful currency trader, making his living entirely from the markets by trading his FX portfolio. Apart from trading, he also hosts webinars and gives speeches about the currency market. He worked as a freelance trader and market analyst for BDSwiss for eight years before joining Naga Markets.